網(wǎng)絡(luò)公開(kāi)課無(wú)法解決美國(guó)教育危機(jī)美文
Optimists have scoured the dictionary for superlatives to describe the future of internet education. But the cult of the Mooc – massive online open courses – took a blow last week when one of its leading Silicon Valley pioneers, Sebastian Thrun, described it as a “l(fā)ousy product”.
對(duì)于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)教育的未來(lái)，樂(lè)觀者用盡了詞典中所有最高級(jí)形容詞予以贊美。然而，對(duì)大型開(kāi)放式網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程(Massive Online Open Courses，簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)MOOC)的崇拜最近遭遇了一次巨大打擊：該領(lǐng)域的硅谷先驅(qū)之一塞巴斯蒂安特倫(Sebastian Thrun)稱(chēng)其為一種“十分糟糕的產(chǎn)品”。
Students taking Mr Thrun’s online courses at Udacity performed far worse – and dropped out in far higher numbers – than those with a human instructor. Mr Thrun, who invented the self-driving car, is at least temporarily dropping out of the business. Luddites everywhere will be feeling vindicated.
在特倫的Udacity網(wǎng)站注冊(cè)在線(xiàn)課程的學(xué)生，成績(jī)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)差于那些當(dāng)堂聽(tīng)課的學(xué)生，退課的比例也大得多。曾經(jīng)發(fā)明自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)的特倫，至少暫時(shí)退出了這一業(yè)務(wù)。對(duì)此，世界各地反對(duì)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的人將覺(jué)得自己的觀點(diǎn)被證明正確。
Yet the need to reinvent US education is more pressing than ever. If America’s college dropout rates are not persuasive enough – nearly half of US students fail to complete their four-year degree within six years – the fate of those who make it ought to be. Graduate earnings have fallen 5 per cent since 2000. The college premium is still there but only because the earnings of those with a high-school diploma have dropped by far more. Meanwhile, the costs of getting a degree continue to rise, which means the trade-off of taking on ever larger debt to boost future earnings keeps getting weaker.
然而，重塑美國(guó)教育的需求比以往任何時(shí)候都更加迫切。如果美國(guó)大學(xué)的退學(xué)率還不足以說(shuō)明問(wèn)題(近半數(shù)美國(guó)學(xué)生未能在6年內(nèi)完成4年期的本科學(xué)位課程)，那么成功完成學(xué)業(yè)的大學(xué)生的遭遇應(yīng)該能說(shuō)明問(wèn)題。自2000年以來(lái)，美國(guó)畢業(yè)生的收入下跌了5%。大學(xué)帶來(lái)的收入溢價(jià)依然存在，但只是因?yàn)橹挥懈咧形膽{的人收入降幅更大。與此同時(shí)，獲得學(xué)位的成本在繼續(xù)上漲，這意味著為提高未來(lái)收入而背負(fù)更多債務(wù)的取舍越來(lái)越難了。
This is where online education comes in. Moocs can drive down costs to almost zero. Yet they will be hard-pressed to fix the cost problem if more than 90 per cent of their enrollees lose interest, which was the outcome of Udacity’s much-hyped experiment. This is twice the attrition of mainstream students.
這正是在線(xiàn)教育能夠發(fā)揮作用的地方。MOOC能把教育成本壓低到接近于零的地步。然而，如果超過(guò)90%的公開(kāi)課注冊(cè)者失去對(duì)課程的興趣(這一比例是主流教育方式的兩倍)，他們必然為解決成本問(wèn)題而焦頭爛額。
Yet it makes only marginal difference whether a student gets his or her education from a computer or a real live human if the content is irrelevant to the jobs market. As the economist Tyler Cowen argues in his seminal book, Average is Over , there is a larger crisis in what US students are being taught. Content, rather than medium, is the problem.
然而，如果課程內(nèi)容與就業(yè)市場(chǎng)無(wú)關(guān)，學(xué)生所受教育來(lái)自電腦還是來(lái)自真人只會(huì)有很小的差別。正如經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家泰勒考恩(Tyler Cowen)在他有巨大影響的《平均時(shí)代的終結(jié)》(Average is Over)一書(shū)中所稱(chēng)的，美國(guó)課堂里講授的內(nèi)容存在更大的危機(jī)。內(nèi)容才是問(wèn)題所在，而不是媒介。
Washington’s mindset is about getting students to be more like machines. But humans are destined to lose the race against the robots – just ask any chess grandmaster. The goal of education ought to be to complement rather than outrun the power of computers. Those unconvinced by Mr Tyler’s plea for a revival of humanities should take a look at the US jobs market. According to the Harvard Business Review, the US has shed 750,000 jobs in the information sector since the turn of the millennium – second only to manufacturing in percentage terms. Yet information is precisely the sector to which US college degrees are increasingly tailored.
美國(guó)政府的教育理念是讓學(xué)生更像機(jī)器一些。然而人類(lèi)是注定要在比賽中輸給機(jī)器人的——只要問(wèn)問(wèn)那些國(guó)際象棋特級(jí)大師就知道了。教育的目標(biāo)應(yīng)該是彌補(bǔ)計(jì)算機(jī)能力的不足，而不是要超過(guò)計(jì)算機(jī)。那些對(duì)泰勒所提倡的復(fù)興人文學(xué)科不以為然的人，應(yīng)該看一看美國(guó)的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)。根據(jù)《哈佛商業(yè)評(píng)論》(Harvard Business Review)的數(shù)據(jù)，自新千年以來(lái)，美國(guó)信息產(chǎn)業(yè)領(lǐng)域失去了75萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位，降幅僅次于制造業(yè)。然而越來(lái)越多的美國(guó)本科專(zhuān)業(yè)恰恰是面向信息產(chǎn)業(yè)的。
Given its implications, the HBR study has attracted less attention than it deserves. Its results show that Washington’s goal of boosting the share of Americans who study science, technology, engineering and maths – the so-called Stem subjects – may be ill-conceived. It also puts Moocs in their place. Moocs can reduce costs and broaden access, both of which are highly desirable. But they have no special insight into tomorrow’s labour market.
從其潛在影響看，《哈佛商業(yè)評(píng)論》的這份研究報(bào)告得到的關(guān)注太少了。這份報(bào)告的結(jié)果表明，美國(guó)政府提出的目標(biāo)——提高攻讀理科、技術(shù)、工程及數(shù)學(xué)(所謂“STEM”學(xué)科)的人群比例——的出發(fā)點(diǎn)可能錯(cuò)了。這一研究結(jié)論也將MOOC打回原形。MOOC能降低教育成本和擴(kuò)大接受教育的人群，這兩大優(yōu)勢(shì)都是非常可取的。但它們對(duì)明日的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)并沒(méi)有特別的洞察力。
The trends in today’s jobs market should be startling enough. Since 2000, the number of US computer-related jobs, including hardware and software engineers, has fallen by more than 100,000, according to the HRB, while those in telecoms, including equipment and line installers, has dropped by a stunning 567,000. These are big growth sectors, in terms of revenue and margins. But they are also most vulnerable to automation. The same is true of jobs in telemarketing (down 44 per cent), electrical engineers (37 per cent) and desktop publishers (39 per cent).
如今的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)應(yīng)該足夠令人震驚。根據(jù)《哈佛商業(yè)評(píng)論》，自2000年以來(lái)，美國(guó)與計(jì)算機(jī)有關(guān)的工作崗位(包括硬件和軟件工程師)數(shù)量減少了逾10萬(wàn)個(gè)，而電信行業(yè)工作崗位(包括設(shè)備和線(xiàn)路安裝在內(nèi))減少了令人震驚的56.7萬(wàn)個(gè)。就營(yíng)收和利潤(rùn)率來(lái)看，這些都是高增長(zhǎng)行業(yè)。然而它們也是最容易受到自動(dòng)化影響的行業(yè)。同樣的結(jié)論對(duì)于遠(yuǎn)程銷(xiāo)售、電氣工程師和桌面出版行業(yè)也成立，它們的'工作崗位分別減少了44%、37%和39%。
Contrast that with the jobs that grew. The number of library employees in America has risen a third since 2000. Jobs in acting were up 12 per cent, music directors and composers grew 35 per cent and writers and authors were up 6 per cent. Technology is reducing the need for most kinds of labour. At the same time it is vastly expanding the number of channels for creative output. That ought to make humanities – and the study of humans – more relevant. It makes no more sense for most people to study computer engineering than it does for air passengers to master avionics.
以上結(jié)論與那些出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)的工作崗位形成反差。自2000年以來(lái)，美國(guó)圖書(shū)館員工的數(shù)目增加了三分之一。演藝類(lèi)崗位增加了12%，音樂(lè)總監(jiān)及作曲家增加了35%，而作家和文藝創(chuàng)作者增加了6%。技術(shù)進(jìn)步正在降低多數(shù)工種的需求。與此同時(shí)，它為創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)出開(kāi)辟了更多渠道。這應(yīng)該令人文學(xué)科(以及以人為研究對(duì)象的學(xué)科)變得更加相關(guān)。對(duì)于多數(shù)人來(lái)說(shuō)，學(xué)習(xí)計(jì)算機(jī)工程的意義并不比讓民航乘客掌握航空技術(shù)大。
Where does all this leave the Moocs? As the techno-optimists keep pointing out, we can now download the Library of Congress and Ivy League lectures for free. A few motivated groups, such as older employees trying to keep pace, reservists in the US military and ambitious youngsters in places such as India, tend to finish online degrees. But most people, including Mr Thrun’s enrollees, rapidly lose interest. The real challenge facing US educators, in other words, is to motivate the unenthused majority. This is far easier said than done. You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink.
這一切使MOOC處于什么地位呢?正如科技樂(lè)觀主義者不斷指出的，如今我們能免費(fèi)下載整個(gè)美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)圖書(shū)館(Library of Congress)的藏書(shū)和常青藤盟校(Ivy League)的課堂授課。少數(shù)有動(dòng)力的人群——比如試圖跟上時(shí)代的年長(zhǎng)員工、美國(guó)軍隊(duì)的預(yù)備役人員以及印度等地有進(jìn)取心的年輕人——傾向于完成在線(xiàn)學(xué)位課程。而包括特倫課程的注冊(cè)者在內(nèi)的多數(shù)人會(huì)迅速失去興趣。換句話(huà)說(shuō)，美國(guó)教育人士面臨的真正挑戰(zhàn)是如何鼓舞缺乏熱情的大多數(shù)人。這一點(diǎn)說(shuō)起來(lái)容易，做起來(lái)可就難多了。你可以把馬牽到水邊，但你沒(méi)法強(qiáng)迫它喝水。
Insurance companies call America’s millennial generation the “invincibles”, because the young rarely worry about their health. But I prefer Mr Cowen’s moniker of the “l(fā)imbo generation”, since they are worried sick about their financial prospects. The newest portion of the US workforce is saddled with more than $1tn of debts in a market that isn’t paying. Those who thrive in this less forgiving world will be savvy enough to tap the boundless resources they can get from Moocs in particular and the internet in general. Alas, Udacity’s setback reminds us that they are almost certainly in a minority. At best computers can offer a partial answer to America’s education crisis. Though we tend to cost more, the rest of it is down to human beings.
保險(xiǎn)公司將美國(guó)新千年一代稱(chēng)為“不可戰(zhàn)勝的一代”，因?yàn)檫@一代年輕人很少擔(dān)心自己的健康。不過(guò)我更喜歡考恩提出的那個(gè)綽號(hào)——“無(wú)著落的一代”，因?yàn)樗麄儗?duì)自己的財(cái)務(wù)前景擔(dān)心得很。美國(guó)最新一代的勞動(dòng)者背負(fù)著逾1萬(wàn)億美元的債務(wù)，卻面臨一個(gè)薪資不怎么樣的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)。在這個(gè)不那么順當(dāng)?shù)氖澜缛玺~(yú)得水的人，將是那些足夠明智，能夠充分利用MOOC乃至整個(gè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的無(wú)限資源的人?？上?，Udacity的挫折提醒我們，這類(lèi)人幾乎可以肯定是少數(shù)。往好了說(shuō)，電腦只能解決美國(guó)教育危機(jī)的部分問(wèn)題。其他問(wèn)題還是要由人來(lái)解決——盡管人的成本往往更高。
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